In the winter of 2006 I found myself at a party in
Cambridge, Massachusetts, where I somehow managed to get into a conversation
about the Golan Heights. This was only a few months after the 2006 Lebanon War,
during which I had been living in Jerusalem, and frankly pretty happy that Israel's possession
of the Golan was keeping Hezbollah rockets, mortars and missiles that much
farther away. The central premise of my interlocutor's argument that winter evening
was that Israel has one of the most advanced armies in the world and that this
technological edge should satisfy any security concerns when it comes to handing over parts of northern Israel to Lebanon or Syria. My counterargument
then, which I believe is perhaps even more valid today, was that having
advanced weapons systems and good intelligence is important and certainly an
Israeli advantage in any conflict, but that the primary security concern in the
north is not that the Lebanese or Syrian army is going to launch a massive ground
invasion, but rather that the high ground would (and already does) provide the
perfect place for non-state actors such as Hezbollah to fire rockets and
mortars.
While it is true that for decades the border with Syria was
relatively stable, Hezbollah rockets, infiltrators and snipers posed a constant
threat to both civilians and the IDF along the border with Lebanon. Hezbollah
remains a threat today to Israeli civilians, but as the civil war in Syria has
raged on and expanded in the last two years, fighting between the Assad regime
and various opposition forces has reached the border with Israel, occasionally
spilling over into Israeli territory. This week we have seen perhaps the most troubling developments yet, with reports that Syrian militants have taken hostage members of the UN peace keeping force stationed along the Syria-Israel
border, as well as mortars fired from inside Syria landing inside Israeli
territory.
Israel is a small country that is
under constant threat from a range of enemies. While Jordan and Egypt are
reliable partners when it comes to security, they both face their own thorny
political and security challenges, internally and within the region. These
relationships are very important for all parties involved and represent a major
step forward in Israel's relationship with its Arab neighbors, but the security
landscape has shifted significantly in the last decade and now it is non-state actors and the
spillover from proxy wars that represent the primary threat to Israel.
This reality makes the security of
the Golan and the people who live there, even more of a concern for Israel. But
the threat posed by an expansion of Hezbollah or any of the motley crew of
anti-Assad forces is not limited to those who reside in northern Israel. The
danger of a terrorist foothold in the Golan is that these groups would use both
the geography and geology to their advantage, exploiting a position deeper
inside Israeli territory and perched high atop the Golan peaks, to try to kill
as many Israeli civilians as possible.
As I argued 8 years ago, and believe
now more than ever, Israel must remain vigilant in the north. Anyone who has
travelled in this part of the country and looked across the border to see the
flag of Hezbollah flying in Lebanese villages, or the noted the proximity of
Damascus to the Israeli border, is likely to agree.
Copyright Daniel E. Levenson 2014.